SADC aims to address the challenges posed by climate variability and change

The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) convened the 30th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-30) in Antananarivo, Madagascar, from 28th to 30th January 2025. The forum focused on seasonal forecasting and climate outlook. The primary objective of the forum was to address the climate crisis through collaborative efforts and innovative approaches, reaffirming the region's commitment to fostering a safer and more climate-resilient environment. The event also aimed to improve the precision and accessibility of seasonal rainfall forecasts, contributing to a climate-resilient future. The SARCOF took place against the backdrop of cyclones and natural disasters that have severely impacted the region's economy, disrupting sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, tourism and hindering various development initiatives.  

The theme for SARCOF-30, "Closing the Early Warning Gap Together in the SADC Region," draws inspiration from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and aligns with the focus of World Meteorological Day 2024. This theme highlights the essential need for regional collaboration to bolster early warning systems amid increasing climate risks. 

Honourable Dr. Manambahoaka Valéry Fitzgerald Ramonjavelo, Minister of Transport and Meteorology for the Republic of Madagascar, has called on SADC Member States to unify their efforts and strategies to achieve shared objectives. By enhancing regional cooperation, the aim is to lay the groundwork for a more resilient and well-prepared region. 

Dr. Ramonjavelo emphasised the rising frequency and severity of natural disasters, which underscores the urgent need for robust early warning systems to save lives, minimise economic losses, and protect infrastructure. 

As part of the global “Early Warnings for All” initiative, the Minister urged SADC to intensify efforts in line with the directives from WMO and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). This initiative seeks to ensure the protection of communities and citizens through the effective implementation of early warning systems. 

Honourable Dr. Ramonjavelo underscored the importance of early disaster detection as a key strategy to mitigate natural catastrophes. He stated, "Early warning is ineffective without prompt action. Every second is crucial for mobilising communities, activating emergency plans, and preventing human and material losses." 

Reflecting on Madagascar's recent experiences, the Minister noted that the country was severely impacted by Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi on 11th January 2025, with an intensity comparable to Cyclone Gamane whcih struck the country on 24th March 2024. Both events had devastating consequences. "Cyclone Gamane resulted in 12 fatalities and displaced over 21,000 individuals, whereas Dikeledi led to 3 deaths and affected approximately 5,000 people," he stated. 

The Minister emphasised the necessity of fostering stronger collaboration between governments, local communities, climate mechanisms, and international partners. He advocated for a people-centered approach to ensure that systems effectively address the needs of the most vulnerable populations. 

Ms. Mapolao Mokoena the SADC Director of Infrastructure, emphasised the significance of the forum, noting its strategic position to understand, anticipate, and devise various responses to the challenges posed by climate variability and change. She highlighted the critical importance of seasonal forecasting as a robust tool, which is essential for resilience building and sustainable development. These forecasts offer early insights into weather patterns that allow the region to anticipate risks and seize opportunities across key sectors. 

She urged the region to enhance and strengthen its capacity to cope with climate extremes and promote sustainable management of natural resources through effective cooperation in critical sectors to combat the impacts of climate change. The Director referenced the devastating effects of the El Niño event in 2023/2024, which severely affected the SADC Region and from which full recovery has yet to be achieved. The Regional Humanitarian Appeal, launched in response to the El Niño-induced drought and floods, was necessitated by the declaration of a state of regional disaster by several SADC Member States and required funding of US$6.5 billion. 

Ms. Mokoena noted that since the launch of the Appeal on 20th May 2024, US$1.1 billion has been mobilised, leaving a funding gap of US$5.4 billion. The impacts of El Niño affected 79.8 million people, with 52.7 million targeted for humanitarian assistance. The 2024 SADC Regional Humanitarian Appeal will remain active until April 2025, coinciding with the end of the rainy season. 

Additionally, Ms. Mokoena highlighted the challenges and opportunities associated with climate variability in the water, energy and agriculture sectors, and disaster risk management. She emphasised that such sectors are the lifeblood of many Southern African economies, and they rely on accurate and timely on seasonal forecasts for better management of these vital resources. 

During the forum, the climate expert led plenary workshops for sector-specific technical working groups, conducted presentations, and devised mitigation strategies addressing climate variability and natural disasters. The forum also explored historical insights to improve forecasting, leveraging the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate-mode analyses for effective seasonal planning. 

The SARCOF was held through the ClimSA programme, which is financially supported by the European Union (EU) funded through the Intra-ACP Climate Services and related Application (ClimSA) Programme, and is integral to the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) which aims to strengthen and coordinate the development, delivery, and use of climate services to support decision-making in addressing climate-related risks at national, regional, and global levels. 

The forum was attended by climate service producers, key stakeholders from sectors such as water, energy, food and agriculture, health, and the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), government officials, policymakers, and humanitarian organisations from across the region and the globe. The SARCOF released the Summary Statement as well as the Summary of Early Warning Advisory Messages. 

The SARCOF-30 was preceded by a Climate Experts Meeting (CEM) which was held from 21st to 27th January 2025 to enhance the capacity of climate experts in long range forecasting from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the SADC region and produce the regional Seasonal Climate Outlook for the February to June 2025 period. 

On 31st January 2025, the SADC Secretariat hosted a forum to discuss climate-resilient infrastructure for the Oceanic Member States of the Republic of Madagascar, the Republic of Mauritius, and the Republic of Seychelles. The forum aimed to address the unique needs of the island states and support these Member States in preparing and developing bankable projects for the infrastructure sectors which include Water, Energy, Transport and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) with Meteorology as a cross-cutting sector. This event was significant as it focused on developing integrated programmes to support infrastructure and create efficient, seamless, integrated, and cost-effective cross-border infrastructure networks and services, specifically tailored to the needs of Island States. 

The SARCOF released a statement below attached.